Sharing is caring: world better protected with an equal distribution of COVID vaccines
This estimation is based on a mathematical model developed by the team, led by Dr Zhang Qingpeng, Associate Professor, School of Data Science in City University of Hong Kong. Their model forecasted the transmission process of COVID-19 in 179 countries, taking into account vaccinations, variants, and the movement of people.
According to the team’s analysis, richer countries stocking up on vaccines could lead to more serious and frequent outbreaks of COVID-19. The model showed that when vaccines were distributed unevenly, the infection rates decreased in high-income countries and sharply increased in low-income countries, leading to high risk of variants developing. High-income countries would then be exposed to the new variants, consequently causing cases to surge once again.
The team suggested that countries whose public health situations are under control and have a large stock of vaccines donate 46% to 80% of their COVID-19 vaccines to low-income countries.
“This is an effective way to curb the transmission of the virus and to protect everyone in the world,” said Dr Zhang.
Their findings were published in Nature Human Behaviour.